Monday, July 1, 2013

What's next for the Jazz?


I was lucky to not have to work the night of the draft, so I could thoroughly enjoy the most optimistic day in the NBA. It was the craziest draft night in anybody's memory, with all the wild picks, trades and even a fun Bill Simmons–Doc Rivers feud. But the best part of the draft was Dennis Lindsey taking his first action as the new Jazz general manager, and doing exactly what everyone said he was supposed to do. For at least a week leading into the draft, everyone was talking about how Trey Burke would be perfect for the Jazz and how they should trade up to get him. I was saying it, the national media was saying it, and fortunately, Lindsey believed it. Now that he's done what he was supposed to do, what should he do next?

Last season was a disaster for Utah. Kevin O'Connor's final moves were questionable at best, and they turned out to be complete duds as the season progressed. Mo Williams was actually a downgrade from Devin Harris (mostly because of his health) and Marvin Williams made a case for the worst small forward in the league. Al Jefferson never asserted his dominance, Paul Millsap could never play with Big Al and became moody, and Tyrone Corbin never ceased to frustrate me whenever I happened to catch the Jazz on TV. A reasonably talented roster underachieved and missed the playoffs, only partly because of injuries.

However, the future does look bright — as it always does after the draft. Utah now has one promising young player in each position: Trey Burke, Alec Burks, Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter. Jerry Sloan is back (in some capacity), as is Karl Malone and former Ute Alex Jensen. (Hopefully Jeff Hornacek won't make Phoenix a contender and make Utah look stupid for picking Corbin over him.) But first of all, the Jazz need to deal with their seven unrestricted free agents. Here they are in alphabetical order:

DeMarre Carroll

Carroll was on his way out of the league until the Jazz picked him up in the middle of the 2011-12 season. He seems to play with a lot of energy, but not much skill, which may explain his erratic playing time. Last season, he played 66 games, started 12, averaged 16.8 minutes per game and 6 points per game, both career highs. I don't particularly like him, nor do I dislike him. I do think the Jazz should keep him, though, mainly for the sake of continuity. I'd like to limit this year's roster upheaval as much as possible.

Randy Foye

Foye's big thing last year was setting a new franchise record for most 3-pointers in a season at 178 (the previous record was Mehmet Okur with 129 in 2007). Foye played all 82 games, started 72, and averaged 10.8 ppg. Unfortunately, all he did was shoot 3-pointers. He made 3.6 field goals per game and 2.2 of them were from long-range. While he shot a decent .410 from behind the arc, his overall field goal percentage was only .397. I also blame him for creating a live-or-die-by-the-3 atmosphere in Utah, which was ridiculous, since the Jazz had strong post players in Jefferson and Millsap. Despite this, I think it would be valuable for the Jazz to have a veteran sharpshooting guard on the roster. Foye could continue to fill that role, but only if he'll play for cheap.

Al Jefferson

Jefferson has now played three seasons with three teams, and he has pretty much had nothing but bad luck everywhere he went. He skipped college and got drafted by a pretty bad Celtics team. He then got traded for Kevin Garnett and ended up on a really bad Timberwolves team. There, he put up good numbers, but developed bad habits — not passing, no defense, etc. We was then traded to Utah to try to replace Carlos Boozer. But then the whole Deron Williams thing went down, Jerry Sloan retired, and Big Al got stuck with Devin Harris, who could never get him the ball, Mo Williams, who could never stay on the court, and Paul Millsap, who clogged up his lane. I feel bad for Big Al — I really do. But at this point in his career, we know what he's going to give us. He's not the assertive, team-leading 20-10 guy we need him to be. He's a pretty good scorer and rebounder (17.8 and 9.2 last year) and that's about it. He doesn't get to the free throw line near as much as he should, and he only recently started to learn that passing the ball is a good thing. And don't get me started on his defense. In a perfect world, he would start for the Jazz next year alongside Derrick Favors and serve as mentor to Enes Kanter. But realistically, I think it's time for the Jazz to part ways with Big Al. It would be nice to work a sign-and-trade, but that could be tricky to pull off.

Paul Millsap

Millsap was the little 2nd-round pick who surprised everybody with his tremendous hustle and heart. He filled in great when Boozer was injured, but he also benefitted from a great Jazz team with Memo Okur, Deron Williams and Jerry Sloan. After Boozer left, Millsap should have claimed his spot as the team's premier post player. Instead, Kevin O'Connor brought in Al Jefferson, when I think he should have looked for a 3-point shooting center (they're not that uncommon). It became increasingly evident that Jefferson and Millsap didn't work well together, but O'Connor refused to move one of them and the rookie GM didn't dare take a risk that monumental. Anyway, Millsap had to deal with a suddenly crowded post with Big Al, and to try to create some spacing, he started shooting 3s. He never really got that good at it, so Corbin couldn't (or wouldn't) keep him at small forward for his super big lineups very much. Millsap has the heart and skill to be an All-Star, but when he was snubbed, he went into a slump. Although he became a fan favorite with his hard work and occasional game-winning shots, Millsap seemed generally unhappy in Utah last season, and his stats slipped to 14.6 ppg and 7.1 rpg. It's time for him to go. He's had a good run in Utah, but there's no room for him here anymore.

Jamaal Tinsley

In 2011, the Jazz took a rare risk on known-headcase Jamaal Tinsley. Surprisingly, it worked out rather well. Turns out the point guard has mellowed and matured with time, and while age has robbed him of his athleticism, he will still occasionally display a glimpse of his former brilliance. He hasn't caused any problems for the Jazz, doesn't care about playing time or scoring, and does a great job of running the offense. I think he is the ideal candidate to serve as Trey Burke's mentor this upcoming season.

Earl Watson

Watson came to the Jazz in the 2010-11 season, and he has basically been the ideal backup point guard since then. He just ran the offense, did his job, and didn't cause any trouble. But then one day he hurt his ankle and decided to get an unorthodox treatment at UCLA involving a laser. The short term effects were great, but it didn't prevent him from re-injuring that ankle in the long term. When Watson was out (he played 50 games in '11-12 and only 48 last season), Tinsley took his minutes. It became kind of awkward when everybody realized Tinsley could do exactly what Watson could and was even a little better. Corbin was reluctant to play Watson over Tinsley, and then Watson started to complain a little bit. It really wasn't a huge deal, but looking forward, I think the Jazz only need one veteran point guard who can't shoot (Watson's numbers last season: .308 FG, .179 3P, .680 FT), and that man should be Tinsley. For Watson, I think he should consider retirement. He's played 11 years, and when you can barely make it through half the season with abysmal shooting percentages like that, I say it's time to hang up the sneakers.

Mo Williams

Kevin O'Connor's biggest regret played 46 games last season and averaged 12.9 ppg and 6.2 apg. That's not a point guard that can lead you into the playoffs, as we just witnessed. The Jazz missed Mo's prime, and now, after nine seasons, I'm not sure he can start and play 35 minutes a game anymore. He could be a great bench player somewhere, possibly in Utah, but that seems unlikely. Mo and his agent have recently issued rather defensive-sounding statements saying he never has, nor ever will demand to start. To me, if you're taking the time to tell this to people, then there might be some truth behind it, whether he admits it or not. The way it looks now, Mo's time in Utah is done. And that's probably for the best.

So, to summarize, I say the Jazz should re-sign DeMarre Carroll (for stability purposes), Randy Foye (if there's no other 3-point shooter out there) and Jamaal Tinsley (to mentor Trey Burke). Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap and Mo Williams (three of Utah's top four scorers) would likely find greater success on another team. And Earl Watson should just retire. For next season, I want it to be a make-or-break year for Tyrone Corbin and Derrick Favors. Is Corbin a good coach or not? He's now been at the job long enough that we should be able to tell. And if he's not the guy who can lead this team back into contention, then we should start looking elsewhere. Same with Favors. Let's open up the front court, give the man some minutes, and find out, once and for all, if this is the guy we can build our team around. I don't want the Jazz to sign any guys who could take minutes away from our young core. They need to develop and the team needs a fresh start.

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