Friday, November 22, 2013

A deeper look at tanking (Part 1)


Tyrone Corbin knows what's up. So does Gordon Hayward, who recently shot 1-for-17 against New Orleans (I was hoping he'd break Chris Bosh's 1-for-18 record, alas!). GM Dennis Lindsey knew it, too, when he traded for Richard Jefferson (10.5 ppg on .371 FG%), Brandon Rush (1 game, 0 points) and Andris Biedrins (has not played a game yet, and will earn a $9 million salary this year). Corbin, Hayward, Lindsey and probably everybody else on the Jazz know that this season is a wash. Might as well throw your hands up in the air and trust in the tanking system. Corbin's hoping he can somehow prove he deserves to keep his job, Hayward's hoping he can play his way into a bigger contract next season, Jefferson's hoping he can show a contender he can still contribute, and Lindsey's hoping the Jazz lose enough games to get a great draft pick. It's Utah's best chance at rebuilding. The tried and true tactic of tanking.

In my last tanking post, I focused only on the teams that completely bottomed out. But tanking doesn't require a 12-win season. You just have to be bad enough to get a good draft pick. So today, I am looking at all the teams in the past 30 years that made the conference finals to determine whether their best player was acquired through tanking — or, in other words, all they had to do to get that player was lose enough games to get a high enough draft pick. If they traded for that pick or player, or signed him as a free agent, then I attribute that acquisition to good front office moves — not to the team's ineptitude. And I'm choosing the conference finalists because I think it's sometimes unrealistic to expect a championship. But a conference finals appearance makes a team a contender in my book. It usually means you had a solid, 50-win season and played in a dozen or so playoff games. And for many teams, that's about all they could ever hope for. So here's the first half of my list. I used an asterisk to mark the teams that tanked (or at least lost a bunch of games) to get their top player.

1983-84:

*Celtics: Larry Bird (MVP & Finals MVP) — 6th pick in 1978 after a 32-50 season
Lakers: Magic Johnson — 1st pick in 1979 (traded from New Orleans)
Bucks: Sidney Moncrief — 5th pick in 1979 (traded from Detroit)
*Suns: Walter Davis — 5th pick in 1977 (34-48)

Bird was the word in 1984. Too cheesy? Anyway, Larry Legend won the regular season MVP with 24.2 ppg, 10.1 rpg and 6.6 apg. In the Finals, he led Boston past the Lakers in seven games with 27.4/14.0/3.6. Although a 32-win season isn't exactly horrible, it was still bad enough to miss the playoffs and draft a great player, so I say the Celtics technically tanked to get Bird. Same with the Suns, even though Walter Davis was nowhere near the caliber of Larry Bird. He did lead the Suns with 20 ppg in the regular season and nearly 25 in the playoffs, as he helped Phoenix upset the Jazz in the second round. The Lakers lucked into Magic Johnson thanks to the willingness of the New Orleans Jazz to sacrifice their future for Gail Goodrich, and Sidney Moncrief was acquired in a draft-day trade, preventing him from earning a "tank" status.

1984-85:

Lakers: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (Finals MVP) — sign-and-trade with Milwaukee in 1975
*Celtics: Larry Bird (MVP)
76ers: Moses Malone — free agent in 1982
Nuggets: Alex English — trade with Indiana in 1980

By this point, I already consider the Lakers to be Magic's team, but Kareem did put up one heck of a Finals that year with 25.7/9.0/5.2. Of course, the Lakers got him simply because they were based in L.A. and they were the Lakers and Kareem wanted to play there. Moses Malone signed with Philadelphia so he could win a championship with Dr. J, which he did in 1983. The 76ers had just drafted Charles Barkley in 1984, but Malone was still their leading scorer and rebounder. Alex English had already proven himself as a valuable player before he was traded for George McGinnis.

1985-86:

*Celtics: Larry Bird (MVP & Finals MVP)
*Rockets: Hakeem Olajuwon — 1st pick in 1984 (29-53)
Lakers: Magic Johnson
Bucks Sidney Moncrief

Hakeem the Dream is one of the most successful tanking stories in NBA history. After finishing with the second-worst record, the Rockets won the coin toss, and followed Olajuwon to the Finals just two years later. Of course, their win over the Lakers was somewhat miraculous, and the Celtics did subsequently crush them, but it was still a great season for Houston.

1986-87:

Lakers: Magic Johnson (MVP & Finals MVP)
*Celtics: Larry Bird
*Pistons: Isiah Thomas — 2nd pick in 1981 (21-61)
Sonics: Dale Ellis — trade with Dallas in 1986

Isiah Thomas is another great tanking story. Going from 61 losses to 52 wins in five seasons is pretty impressive. I had a hard time choosing the best player for this 39-43 Sonics team. They might be the only team with a losing record to reach the conference finals. Dale Ellis, Tom Chambers and Xavier McDaniel each averaged at least 23 ppg in the regular season. I went with Ellis because he had the highest average of the three, especially during the playoffs. For what it's worth, though, Chambers was originally drafted by the San Diego Clippers, but McDaniel was drafted by the Sonics with the 4th pick in 1985 after a 31-51 season. So I guess you could call that a tanking success if you want — or a third of a success.

1987-88:

Lakers: James Worthy (Finals MVP) — 1st pick in 1982 (traded from Cleveland)
*Pistons: Isiah Thomas
*Celtics: Larry Bird
*Mavericks: Mark Aguirre — 1st pick in 1981 (15-67)

James Worthy primarily won the Finals MVP because he had a triple-double in the deciding game. But his 22.0/7.4/4.4 otherwise was still pretty impressive. (I would have chosen Magic, but that's beside the point.) Of course, the Lakers didn't draft Worthy because they were really bad one year, they just made a really good trade. The Mavericks, on the other hand, were the worst team in 1980-81, which got them the top pick and Mark Aguirre. Interestingly, after this season, Dallas traded him to Detroit, where he'd immediately win a couple of titles, while it took more than a decade for Dallas to return to the conference finals.

1988-89:

Pistons: Joe Dumars (Finals MVP) — 18th pick in 1985 (46-36)
Lakers: Magic Johnson (MVP)
Suns: Kevin Johnson — trade with Cleveland in 1988
*Bulls: Michael Jordan — 3rd pick in 1984 (27-55)

I still consider this Pistons team to be Isiah Thomas', but Joe Dumars really lit it up in the Finals with 27.3 ppg and 6.0 apg. And even though Detroit did draft him, there was no tanking involved. The Pistons were a fairly decent playoff team, and they smartly drafted somebody who worked perfectly with Isiah. For this Suns team, I could have easily chosen Tom Chambers, who led them in scoring and rebounding, but I was more impressed with Kevin Johnson's 23.8 ppg and 12.3 apg in the playoffs. And it seems more people today talk about Johnson than Chambers. Regardless, neither one of them was drafted by Phoenix. Michael Jordan, however, is a wonderful tanking story. The Bulls were downright miserable, and as their reward, they got to draft the greatest player of all time. To tank successfully, you don't necessarily have to be the worst team or get the No. 1 pick, you just have to be in the right place at the right time.

1989-90:

*Pistons: Isiah Thomas (Finals MVP)
Blazers: Clyde Drexler — 14th pick in 1983 (traded from Denver)
*Bulls: Michael Jordan
Suns: Kevin Johnson

Clyde Drexler has two knocks against him for being a tank success — he wasn't a very high draft pick, and that pick originally belonged to another team. He just happened to develop into the best player on a Portland team that was shrewdly put together without tanking or luring big free agents with glitz and glamor.

1990-91:

*Bulls: Michael Jordan (MVP & Finals MVP)
Lakers: Magic Johnson
Blazers: Clyde Drexler
Pistons: Joe Dumars

I put Joe Dumars here because Isiah Thomas missed almost half the season with injuries. But even a healthy Isiah probably wouldn't have been able to stop this Michael Jordan with 31.5/6.0/5.5 in the regular season and 31.2/6.6/11.4 in the Finals.

1991-92:

*Bulls: Michael Jordan (MVP & Finals MVP)
Blazers: Clyde Drexler
Cavaliers: Brad Daugherty — 1st pick in 1986 (traded from Los Angeles Clippers)
Jazz: Karl Malone — 13th pick in 1985 (41-41)

Yay! The Jazz finally made the list! Unfortunately, the Blazers prevented the Jazz from losing to Michael Jordan prematurely. Now, in the age-long debate of Stockton vs. Malone, I always have to go with Malone. At least in the games I watched, he was always the driving force behind Utah's success. But even if I did choose Stockton, I wouldn't say the Jazz tanked to get him. Utah made the second round of the playoffs each season before it drafted Stockton and Malone. They were just smart and lucky in the draft to get two guys who worked their butts off and perfectly complimented each other. As for Cleveland, it was lucky enough to happen to own the Clippers' top pick when it turned out to be No. 1.

1992-93:

*Bulls: Michael Jordan (Finals MVP)
Suns: Charles Barkley (MVP) — trade with Philadelphia in 1992
*Knicks: Patrick Ewing — 1st pick in 1985 (24-58)
Sonics: Shawn Kemp — 17th pick in 1989 (traded from Philadelphia)

So Philadelphia inadvertently set up two good teams this year. Barkley, who just got sick of the Sixers, demanded the trade, and immediately enjoyed the greatest season of his career with 25.6/12.2/5.1. Jordan, though, had the last laugh with 41.0/8.5/6.3 in the Finals. Patrick Ewing was the first-ever grand prize from the lottery, and although it took a while, he did eventually turn the Knicks into contenders. I always think of Shawn Kemp first when I think about these '90s Sonics teams, but Ricky Pierce was the leading scorer this year, and Gary Payton was beginning to emerge. Pierce was originally drafted by the Pistons back in 1982, but Payton is an interesting case. He was drafted by the Sonics with the 2nd pick in 1990, but that was after Seattle went 41-41. They just happened to miss the playoffs that year and got really lucky in the lottery. So I wouldn't consider that a tanking situation even if I did think Payton was better than Kemp in 1993.

1993-94:

*Rockets: Hakeem Olajuwon (MVP & Finals MVP)
*Knicks: Patrick Ewing
Jazz: Karl Malone
Pacers: Reggie Miller — 11th pick in 1987 (41-41)

With Michael Jordan out of the picture, the Rockets were able to return to prominence (crushing the Jazz along the way). Reggie Miller was drafted by the Pacers, but they were a playoff team in 1986-87.  Like the Blazers, they were able to build a contending team without tanking or fancy free agents.

1994-95:

*Rockets: Hakeem Olajuwon (Finals MVP)
*Magic: Shaquille O'Neal — 1st pick in 1992 (21-61)
*Spurs: David Robinson (MVP) — 1st pick in 1987 (28-54)
Pacers: Reggie Miller

If only the Knicks beat the Pacers this year. Then we'd have a clean sweep of tanking teams that got a great center with the No. 1 pick. Shaq and Robinson were everything tanking teams dream about. Shaq did leave Orlando as soon as he could, but he took them to great heights while he was there. Robinson's best season wasn't enough to top Hakeem, but he remained loyal to the franchise and helped them eventually win a couple of titles.

1995-96:

*Bulls: Michael Jordan (MVP & Finals MVP)
Sonics: Shawn Kemp
*Magic: Shaquille O'Neal
Jazz: Karl Malone

Then Michael Jordan came back and crushed everyone's dreams. With the Sonics, I strongly considered Gary Payton, but I don't think they truly became his team until Shawn Kemp left. Either way, Seattle didn't get to the Finals by tanking.

1996-97:

*Bulls: Michael Jordan (Finals MVP)
Jazz: Karl Malone (MVP)
Heat: Alonzo Mourning — trade with Charlotte in 1995
*Rockets: Hakeem Olajuwon

Now we enter the sad, dark years for Jazz fans. They're also the glory years, but very sad, as well. Anyway, Alonzo Mourning is the new guy on the list, and I also considered his point guard, Tim Hardaway. But neither of them were drafted by Miami, so there was no tanking involved. This was also the year that Charles Barkley joined Houston, but it was still Hakeem's team.

1997-98:

*Bulls: Michael Jordan (MVP & Finals MVP)
Jazz: Karl Malone
Lakers: Shaquille O'Neal — free agent in 1996
Pacers: Reggie Miller

We were just so happy to make the Finals the first time. But the second time … it seemed like it was our time … Oh well. Just getting this far without tanking or glamorous free agents is impressive. The Lakers, however, took full advantage of the glitz and glamor, as one of the most dominating centers of all time wanted to start a movie career (see: Kazaam and Steel).

So that is actually a perfect place to stop. We went through 15 seasons and completed the Michael Jordan dynasty. Of those 60 teams, I can say with reasonable confidence that 27 of them were built around a key player acquired through tanking. So that means that about 45 percent of all contenders had at least one really crappy season just a few years before reaching the conference finals. But if we just look at the championship winners, then 11 of those 15 Finals MVPS were tanking success stories.

I recently read a rather short and stupid blog post on Slate about the "Tanking Myth." The author considered Tim Duncan to be only tanking success story, since he helped the Spurs win the title while he was still in his rookie contract. Then he immediately discounted it because of David Robinson's injury. But I think it's entirely unrealistic to expect to win a championship within the first three years of a top pick's career. And even if it did take Larry Bird, Michael Jordan and Hakeem Olajuwon a few years to win titles, how else can you explain how they joined their teams but by tanking? The Celtics, Bulls and Rockets each had a really crappy year, which gave them a very good draft pick. The teams then handled their picks smartly, and built around them, making sure to give their starts the most money to keep them there. The way I see it, that is exactly what tanking is all about, and exactly why so many teams continue to tank to this day.

Coming soon: Part 2, wherein I examine the conference finals teams from the past 15 seasons.

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