Hey, don't give me that look, Alec. You should be celebrating! A 1-14 record is rather impressive — and exactly what the Jazz want to be doing. The best route to improving this franchise is through losing a lot of games, aka, tanking. In the first part of this post, I took a look at all the teams that made the conference finals from 1984 to 1998, and I found that almost half of those teams acquired their best player through nothing more than losing a bunch of games. Let's see how the past 15 years look.
1998-99:
*Spurs: Tim Duncan (Finals MVP) — 1st pick in 1997 (20-62)
Knicks: Latrell Sprewell — trade with Golden State in 1999
Blazers: Isaiah Rider — trade with Minnesota in 1996
Pacers: Reggie Miller — 11th pick in 1987 (41-41)
The '98-99 season sucked. The lockout limited it to just 50 games, and I firmly believe had this been a normal season, the Jazz would have finally won a championship. But that's just wishful thinking. Instead, the Spurs got their first title behind the stellar play of Tim Duncan, who helps prove the tanking theory. Now, David Robinson sat out most of the '96-97 season with injury, but I don't think the Spurs were ignorant about the possibility of drafting Duncan. I think they were quite content to allow Robinson to heal completely and thoroughly, while they limped to a 20-win season. And then just two years later, that top draft pick led them to the ultimate prize. But the other three teams in the conference finals this season did not use the tanking strategy. Patrick Ewing was still on this Knicks roster, but he was injured throughout much of New York's improbable run through the playoffs. Instead, they were led by Latrell Sprewell, who they acquired in one of the most successful mid-season trades in NBA history. For the Blazers, I had a hard time choosing their best player. They were a really well-balanced team, and I seem to remember Brian Grant hurting the Jazz more than anyone else. Rasheed Wallace was also there, but he hadn't quite developed into his All-Star potential. So I stuck with their leading scorer, the turbulent J.R. Rider. But none of those players were drafted by Portland, so there was no tanking there. And as I said in my last post, the Pacers were a playoff team the year before they drafted Reggie, so I don't count them as a tanking team, either.
1999-00:
Lakers: Shaquille O'Neal (MVP & Finals MVP) — free agent in 1996
Pacers: Reggie Miller
Blazers: Rasheed Wallace — trade with Washington in 1996
Knicks: Latrell Sprewell
This was the year that Shaq finally started living up to his full potential. And even though he was a No. 1 overall pick, he ditched his original team (Orlando) to chase the glitz and glamor of Hollywood. After his acting and rapping career failed to take off, he started to focus more on basketball thanks to the arrival of Phil Jackson and the emergence of Kobe Bryant. I don't think it should surprise anyone that the Lakers never were a tanking team on my list. What is surprising is that for the first time since 1984, not a single conference final team was led by a tanking success. Rasheed Wallace was a lottery pick — for the Washington Bullets. So all these teams got here more or less through intelligent front office moves. Maybe the lottery system is doing its job at preventing tanking.
2000-01:
Lakers: Shaquille O'Neal (Finals MVP)
*76ers: Allen Iverson (MVP) — 1st pick in 1996 (18-64)
*Spurs: Tim Duncan
Bucks: Ray Allen — 5th pick in 1996 (traded by Minnesota)
Well, so much for the lottery putting an end to tanking. Philadelphia got a great score after an awful 18-win season. And in the 2001 playoffs, Allen Iverson (almost single-handidly) gave the Lakers their only loss. And Milwaukee is not considered a tanking team by a mere technicality. They acquired Ray Allen through a draft-day trade, but they definitely tanked to get in position to make that trade. However, I credit their GM for dumping off Stephon Marbury for the superior Allen. Which one of those guys is still in the league?
2001-02:
Lakers: Shaquille O'Neal (Finals MVP)
Nets: Jason Kidd — trade with Phoenix in 2001
Kings: Chris Webber — trade with Washington in 1998
*Celtics: Paul Pierce — 10th pick in 1998 (36-46)
Jason Kidd and Chris Webber were both high lottery picks in their day, but they both didn't reach this level of success until they were traded to their third team. We are definitely seeing less tanking teams, but they are still out there. A 36-win season doesn't feel like a "true" tanking season, where everybody completely gives up. But the Celtics were bad enough to get a lottery pick who eventually took them to the conference finals, so they fit under my definition.
2002-03:
*Spurs: Tim Duncan (MVP & Finals MVP)
Nets: Jason Kidd
Mavericks: Dirk Nowitzki — 9th pick in 1998 (traded from Milwaukee)
Pistons: Ben Wallace — trade with Orlando in 2000
Dirk Nowitzki was a draft-day trade for a terrible Dallas team, but I give them credit for taking a chance on the unproven German player instead of sticking with the "sure thing" of Robert "Tractor" Traylor. For the Pistons, I could have chosen their leading scorer, Rip Hamilton, or their point guard, Chauncy Billups. But neither one of them seemed to really take over the team at this point. Ben Wallace, however, was Defensive Player of the Year and at the peak of his abilities with 15 rebounds and 3 blocks a game. The undrafted, undersized center was merely a throw-in for the Grant Hill sign-and-trade. And neither Hamilton nor Billups were drafted by the Pistons, so they built this team entirely without tanking.
2003-04:
Pistons: Chauncy Billups (Finals MVP) — free agent in 2002
Lakers: Shaquille O'Neal
Pacers: Jermaine O'Neal — trade with Portland in 2000
*Timberwolves: Kevin Garnett (MVP) — 5th pick in 1995 (21-61)
Chauncy Billups was originally drafted by Boston, then bounced around to three other teams before he finally found a home in Detroit. He also got pretty lucky to go against a Lakers team caught in a massive Shaq-Kobe feud and an injured Karl Malone unable to help. Reggie Miller was still on the Pacers, but had aged past the point of being their top player. In typical Indiana fashion, the Pacers found their new leader through a smart trade — not tanking. However, the Timberwolves completely tanked to get Kevin Garnett. Yes, he was a bit of a risk coming straight out of high school, but when you're a 21-win team, you can't really get much worse.
2004-05:
*Spurs: Tim Duncan (Finals MVP)
Pistons: Chauncy Billups
Suns: Steve Nash (MVP) — free agent in 2004
*Heat: Dwyane Wade — 5th pick in 2003 (25-57)
Steve Nash was actually drafted by the Suns with the 15th pick in the 1996 draft. But that was a non-tanking situation, and besides, he was traded to Dallas after just a couple of years. Nash then became an All-Star, but then Mark Cuban suddenly got cheap on him, so he rejoined his former team, where he became even better. In Miami, the arrival of Shaquille O'Neal was a really big deal, but this team was led by Dwyane Wade, who was one of the many prizes of the 2003 lottery, which Miami was more than willing to be a part of.
2005-06:
*Heat: Dwyane Wade (Finals MVP)
Mavericks: Dirk Nowitzki
Pistons: Chauncy Billups
Suns: Steve Nash (MVP)
Dwyane Wade put up a dominant Finals performance with 34.7 ppg, 7.8 rpg and 3.8 apg. I watched that series right before I left on my mission, and I thought for sure that Wade was the next Jordan, and the Mavericks were his first victims. But then he got hurt and everything changed.
2006-07:
Spurs: Tony Parker (Finals MVP) — 28th pick in 2001 (58-24)
*Cavaliers: LeBron James — 1st pick in 2003 (17-65)
Pistons: Chauncy Billups
Jazz: Carlos Boozer — free agent in 2004
I still consider the Spurs to be Tim Duncan's team, and I think Tony Parker won this award mainly because of voter fatigue. However, his 24.5/5.0/3.3 was pretty nice — especially for the 28th pick in the draft. He also represents exactly how San Antonio has remained competitive all these years. After landing Duncan, they smartly built a good team around him by drafting intelligently and developing players, so they didn't need to tank again. The Cavs, however, tanked big time to get LeBron. They had the worst record in the league, and their coach at the time, John Lucas, later admitted that Cleveland was tanking. (Funnily, enough, this caused a bit of faux-outrage from Cleveland's owner. Why deny it? Embrace it!) The Jazz, sadly, decided to have another good season while I was in the Czech Republic. This team was anchored by Carlos Boozer, Memo Okur (both free agents) and Deron Williams. The Jazz did a pseudo-tank to get Williams by having a 26-win season then trading up to get him. That's the closest they've come to tanking. Will they be able to do it this year?
2007-08:
*Celtics: Paul Pierce (Finals MVP)
Lakers: Kobe Bryant (MVP) — 13th pick in 1996 (traded by Charlotte)
Pistons: Chauncy Billups
*Spurs: Tim Duncan
Of course, Paul Pierce wasn't the main reason for Boston's championship here. They made two very successful trades for a couple of guys named Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen. However, Pierce was still the leader, and he was technically acquired through a tanking situation. Kobe Bryant finally got to take the Lakers to the Finals (although Pau Gasol helped a lot), but the Lakers didn't get him through tanking — or being particularly smart, either. There's a lot of debate on whether Kobe demanded a trade to L.A. or whether Charlotte was just desperate to get Vlade Divac. Knowing what I know about Kobe, I'm inclined to believe he refused, or would have refused, to play for Charlotte. But whatever you choose to believe, you can't deny that this was a non-tanking situation.
2008-09:
Lakers: Kobe Bryant (Finals MVP)
*Magic: Dwight Howard — 1st pick in 2004 (21-61)
*Cavaliers: LeBron James (MVP)
*Nuggets: Carmelo Anthony — 3rd pick in 2003 (17-65)
Now here are the tanking success stories! Orlando finished with the worst record in the league, landed the top pick, and took only a slight risk with high schooler Dwight Howard. In four years, he had them in the Finals — almost all you could ever hope for. Denver, if you remember, tied with Cleveland for the worst record, and chose Carmelo Anthony with their pick. True, they might have had more success with Dwyane Wade, but reaching the conference finals with Carmelo was a solid accomplishment. But the most important thing from this season is that three of these four teams didn't just tank — they completely bottomed out. And general managers took notice, and continue to try to replicate that success today. (And then they act outraged and vehemently deny all accusations that they would ever attempt to think about doing something as dastardly as tank a season.)
2009-10:
Lakers: Kobe Bryant (Finals MVP)
*Celtics: Paul Pierce
*Magic: Dwight Howard
Suns: Steve Nash
Not much to say for this season. The same handful of teams just keep rotating in and out. Probably the most important development we learned was that Cleveland did not successfully build a winning team around LeBron James. He realized it was too hard for him to win on his on, began to pout, then ditched Cleveland as soon as he could. Carmelo Anthony and Dwight Howard would later follow suit. What's interesting is that this very rarely happened in the '80s or '90s. Teams landed a supreme talent, then kept them and built around them. In the 2000s, teams continued to land the supreme talents through the same tactics (primarily losing), but they became less adept at keeping these players for the long term. Perhaps it has to do with the stricter salary cap.
2010-11:
Mavericks: Dirk Nowitzki (Finals MVP)
Heat: LeBron James — sign-and-trade with Cleveland in 2010
*Bulls: Derrick Rose (MVP) — 1st pick in 2008 (33-49)
*Thunder: Kevin Durant — 2nd pick in 2007 (31-51)
The Bulls and Thunder are both teams that spent a long time tanking, especially Chicago, who started the drill as soon as Jordan left. They suffered through many years in the lottery before they finally got lucky with Derrick Rose. The Thunder (formerly the Sonics) built their team with high draft picks in Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and most importantly, Kevin Durant. The salary cap forced Oklahoma City to break up that trio prematurely, but the takeaway lesson here is that tanking is rarely a one-season event. Sometimes it can take years of strikeouts before you hit it big (like Chicago), or sometimes you need to slowly build up an accumulation of top-tier talent (like OKC). Either way, Jazz fans should prepare themselves for this tanking session to last a while.
2011-12:
Heat: LeBron James (MVP & Finals MVP)
*Thunder: Kevin Durant
*Spurs: Tim Duncan
*Celtics: Paul Pierce
Again, not much to say here. This happened so recently that we all know what happened. We had the old guard (Spurs and Celtics) slowly being replaced by the new guard (Heat and Thunder). But even though LeBron was clearly the best player on Miami this year, the main reason he went there was because they already had Dwyane Wade, who was acquired through tanking. Just like how San Antonio and Boston wouldn't have been as competitive had they not had at least one truly awful season in their recent past.
2012-13:
Heat: LeBron James (MVP & Finals MVP)
*Spurs: Tim Duncan
Grizzlies: Zach Randolf — trade with Los Angeles Clippers in 2009
*Pacers: Paul George — 10th pick in 2010 (32-50)
Now we got a couple of newcomers here. I could have chosen Marc Gasol for Memphis — he was the Defensive Player of the Year — but I stuck with Randolf, their leading scorer and rebounder through the playoffs. But like Randolf, Gasol was traded to Memphis (as a throw-in with the Pau Gasol trade). Memphis' starting point guard, however, Mike Conley Jr., was acquired in the draft after the Grizzlies finished with the worst record in the NBA. So there was a fair amount of tanking on this team. Paul George was one of Indiana's spoils from destroying their team after the Malice at the Palace. It used to not bug me that the Jazz drafted Gordon Hayward one pick ahead of George, but lately that's really starting to annoy me. In a couple of years, that may become one of the worst draft picks made by Utah.
So, let's start tallying everything up. In the past 15 years, 24 of the 60 conference finals teams were led by a tanking success story. That's a 40 percent rate, which is slightly lower than the previous 15-year chunk. Altogether, over the past 30 years, 51 of the 120 teams (42.5 percent) were built by tanking. Looking at just the Finals MVPs, only five of the past 15 were acquired through tanking, whereas the previous 15-year chunk had 11 of 15. So it's getting harder to win by tanking, which is exactly what the NBA wants. But tanking still is perhaps the best way to improve for all teams not named the Los Angeles Lakers. Here's a look at all the teams that made my list:
Lakers: 15 appearances, 0 tanks
Pistons: 11 appearances, 3 tanks
Bulls: 9, 9
Celtics: 9, 9
Spurs: 9, 8
Pacers: 7, 1
Suns: 7, 1
Heat: 6, 2
Jazz: 6, 0
Blazers: 5, 0
Sonics/Thunder: 5, 2
Knicks: 4, 2
Magic: 4, 4
Mavericks: 4, 1
Rockets: 4, 4
Bucks: 3, 0
Cavaliers: 3, 2
76ers: 2, 1
Nets: 2, 0
Nuggets: 2, 1
Grizzlies: 1, 0
Kings: 1, 0
Timberwolves: 1, 1
So this chart means that over the past 30 years, the Lakers have reached at least the conference finals 15 times. They had three distinct dynasties, led by Magic Johnson, Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant. But none of those players were acquired by the Lakers' own lottery pick, i.e., a tanking situation. The Bulls made nine appearances, and each time were led by one of their tanking spoils (Michael Jordan and Derrick Rose). What I find most interesting with this list is the second-highest team with a zero in the tanking column: the Utah Jazz. They have never successfully tanked before. Every other team that's made it more than five times had at least one team led by a lottery pick. Except the Lakers, who can get away with that thanks to their ability to land marquee free agents. But the Jazz will never have that luxury.
Now tanking isn't the only solution. The Detroit Pistons enjoyed an enormous amount of success through a team led by Chauncy Billups and other players acquired through trade or free agency. And that's pretty much how the Jazz did things during Jerry Sloan's tenure. They always made the playoffs, and reached the Finals twice. But that was when the Jazz had a magnificent, hands-on owner and a Hall-of-Fame coach. Greg Miller isn't quite Larry H. Miller, and Tyrone Corbin is nowhere near Jerry Sloan. Without that front office stability and leadership, the Jazz will never be able to return to competitive form "the old-fashioned way." Their only hope is to completely bottom out and draft a guy who can single-handedly turn this team around.
So Jazz fans, sit back and enjoy the tanking. Laugh at their struggles and take pleasure in the coaches and players trying to find new ways to say, "We're not intentionally losing." And Jazz? Why not actually come out and say this season is a wash and that you're actually tanking? What's going to happen? Will the NBA fine you? Will the national media feign shock and wag their tongues at you? I doubt it. Be honest with yourself and the fans. We deserve it.
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