Is tanking really worth it?

I'm a lifelong Jazz fan. So why was I so sad when they won their first game of the season? As odd as it seems, I actually enjoyed watching my team lose this year. I laughed when a Gordon Hayward pass went through Enes Kanter's legs. I cheered for every Jamal Tinsley air-balled 3-pointer. And I applauded John Lucas III's attempt to somehow play worse than Tinsley. I enjoyed all these things because I believe that this is a necessary step for rebuilding. In order to truly improve, the Jazz need to bottom out this year and score a high lottery pick in this year's loaded draft. Or at least that's how the theory goes.

Despite stealing a win on Wednesday night, it's pretty safe to say that the Jazz are unabashedly and unequivocally tanking. And I've been supporting this until I decided to write a post about how awesome this was. When I sat down to write, a small doubt entered my mind. Was this really the best plan? Is tanking ever worth it? To confirm this theory, I needed to gather some empirical evidence. So I decided to take a look at the worst NBA teams in each of the past 30 seasons to see what great prize they were rewarded with for their futility. But first, some background.

The purpose of the NBA Draft is to provide an orderly method to incorporate the incoming crop of young players into the league each season. But the Draft is also designed to maintain the competitive balance of the league. The best team doesn't need much help, so it gets the worst pick, and vice versa. But over time, the league realized too many teams were intentionally losing (tanking) in order to improve their odds to land high-profile, franchise-saving players like Hakeem Olajuwon and Patrick Ewing. So in 1985, the NBA instituted the draft lottery in an attempt to discourage tanking. In my limited research, I think the league has succeeded in this attempt — except for a few notable and recent instances. So here are my results. I looked at the worst team in each season, then looked up their draft pick the next year and how many playoff games that draft pick played in for that team. Because that's the ultimate goal, right? Lottery picks are ideally supposed to turn teams into contenders. But how often has that really happened?

1983-84: Indiana Pacers (26-56): #2, (traded to Portland for Tom Owens), 0 playoff games

The last year before the lottery featured possibly the best draft class of all time. Back then, the NBA just did a simple coin toss between the worst teams to see who got the first pick. The Houston Rockets won the toss and took Akeem Olajuwon, who later won two titles for them. Indiana earned the second pick, but it belonged to the Portland Trail Blazers because of a trade they made three years earlier. In 1981, the Pacers sent away a future draft pick for undersized veteran center Tom Owens. Owens enjoyed the prime of his career in the ABA, and by the time he got to the Pacers, he was only good for about 10 points and five rebounds a game. He spent one year with Indiana, didn't help them make the playoffs, then retired one year later. So the Pacers got absolutely nothing in return for having the worst record in the 1983-84 season. The Blazers, meanwhile, infamously used that draft pick for the perpetually injured center Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan. So neither team came out of this a winner.

1984-85: Pacers (22-60): #2, Wayman Tisdale, 4 playoff games
Golden State Warriors (22-60): #7, Chris Mullin, 33 playoff games

In the first year of the lottery, each team that failed to make the playoffs had an equal chance of winning  the top pick. This time, the Pacers kept their pick, but they narrowly missed out on landing Patrick Ewing. So they settled on power forward Wayman Tisdale, who only spent three and half seasons in Indiana. He did take them to the playoffs once, but they failed to reach the second round. Not exactly what you'd hope for from the #2 pick.

The Warriors got the worst luck of the first lottery, and later the rules were changed so that the worst team would never pick lower than #4. Ironically, though, this #7 pick turned out quite successful for Golden State. Chris Mullin became a fan favorite and recently had his jersey retired by the franchise. He was a member of the Original Dream Team and was elected to the Hall of Fame. But I don't think he was as successful as people remember him being. Even though people today still talk fondly of those Run-TMC teams, they never made it past the second round of the playoffs. I think teams should at least reach the conference finals before we can reverently talk about how good they were.

1985-86: New York Knicks (23-59): #5, Kenny Walker, 26 playoff games

Rookie Patrick Ewing didn't immediately help the Knicks, and neither did the next season's rookie, Kenny Walker. The small forward from Kentucky arrived 10 points and five rebounds per game his rookie campaign, but saw his numbers gradually slip with each passing season. Even though he did appear in 26 playoff games for the Knicks, I hardly think he was responsible for getting the team there. I also think he must have gotten hurt, because after five years with New York, Walker was out of the league and playing in Spain and Italy. He eventually tried a comeback with the Washington Bullets, but that only lasted a season and a half. So all that to say this wasn't a particularly inspiring draft pick.

1986-87: Los Angeles Clippers (12-70): #4, Reggie Williams, 0 playoff games

If the Clippers wanted a small forward, they could have drafted Scottie Pippen. Or if they wanted a guy named Reggie, they could have tried Reggie Miller. Instead, they chose Reggie Williams, who only spent two and a half years with the Clippers, averaging 10 points per game. He and Danny Ferry were traded for Ron Harper and Loy Vaught, but I'd hardly consider that getting your money's worth for a 12-win season.

1987-88: Clippers (17-65): #1, Danny Manning, 10 playoff games

For the first time in the lottery, the worst team ended up with the best player. Danny Manning was undoubtedly the best player available, and he even had a couple of promising years with the Clippers, taking them to the playoffs twice. But injuries took away his explosiveness, and he was eventually traded for a very old Dominique Wilkins. One thing I've learned from this post is that luck plays a very large role in the NBA Draft. And some teams, like the Clippers, are simply unlucky.

1988-89: Miami Heat (15-67): #4, Glen Rice, 8 playoff games

The expansion Heat made the right move taking Glen Rice, and he did enjoy six productive seasons in Miami. But although he was one of the best shooters in the game, he wasn't the kind of guy who could turn your team into a contender. He only took Miami to the playoffs twice, and was eventually traded for Alonzo Mourning. Mourning, however, became a franchise player for the Heat and turned them into contenders. So I guess the Glen Rice pick turned out fairly well for the Heat in the long run.

1989-90: New Jersey Nets (17-65): #1, Derrick Coleman, 13 playoff games

For the second time, the worst team won the right to choose whoever they wanted. And the best available player was unquestionably Derrick Coleman. He had the size, skill and athleticism to potentially be the cornerstone of a contender. A lot of people believed he would be the next Karl Malone. Better even. But he ended up being one of the most disappointing players of his era. He did end up averaging a 20-10, made one All-Star game, and took the Nets to the playoffs three times. But he never could take them out of the first round, and left a lot of people believing he could have been a lot better than what he gave them. Eventually he was traded for Shawn Bradley. No joke!

1990-91: Denver Nuggets (20-62): #4, Dikembe Mutombo, 15 playoff games

Mount Mutombo enjoyed a very long and productive career in the NBA, and he's a surefire Hall-of-Famer, if only for his international status and charity work in Congo. But he only spent five years in Denver. He did help them become the first 8-seed to beat a 1-seed in the playoffs, but they couldn't get past the Jazz in the second round. The year after that, Denver got swept in the first round, and the year after that, they failed to make the playoffs. Dikembe then bolted Denver and signed a big, fat contract with the Atlanta Hawks. So ultimately, all he provided the Nuggets with was one lasting memory. At least they can still enjoy him in the GEICO commercials.

1991-92: Minnesota Timberwolves (15-67): #3, Christian Laettner, 0 playoff games

The Timberwolves are also a pretty unlucky franchise. In 1992, they just missed out on drafting Shaquille O'Neal or Alonzo Mourning. Instead they ended up with Christian Laettner, who is most known for his amazing shot at Duke and for being the token college kid on the Dream Team. But Laettner was a fairly productive NBA player, and he even made the All-Star team once … after he was traded to Atlanta for Andrew Lang and Spud Webb. So yeah, Minnesota really missed out on this one.

1992-93: Dallas Mavericks (11-71): #4, Jamal Mashburn, 0 playoff games

Jamal Mashburn was the best available pick after Dallas missed out on Chris Webber and Penny Hardaway. However, Mashburn never really did that much for Dallas. He did average 20 points per game, but after a couple of seasons, the Mavericks traded him for Kurt Thomas, Martin Muursepp and Sasha Danilovic. Yikes.

1993-94: Mavericks (13-69): #2, Jason Kidd, 46 playoff games*

Unsurprisingly, Jamal Mashburn only helped improve the Mavericks by two games. But it turned out well for them, because they were able to draft Jason Kidd, one of the best point guards of his generation. However, I had to give Kidd an asterisk because he didn't lead the Mavericks to the playoffs during his first stint with the team, which only lasted a couple of seasons. Kidd was traded to Phoenix for Michael Finley, who had a pretty nice career in Dallas. But Kidd's best contributions for Dallas came much later, after he decided to spend his last few productive years on a contender. It just happened to be a coincidence that the contender he chose was also the team that drafted him. That said, however, he did play a major role on a Dallas team that won a championship, and many teams would endure countless 11- and 13-win seasons for a title.

1994-95: Clippers (17-65): #2, Antonio McDyess (traded for Rodney Rogers) 3 playoff games

The Clippers may be unlucky, but they also make some pretty dumb moves. With the #2 pick, they had the option of drafting Jerry Stackhouse, Rasheed Wallace and Kevin Garnett. They chose McDyess, who was a worthy selection, but then they immediately traded him for Rodney Rogers. Rogers was a decent power forward with 3-point range, but he wasn't the 20-10 guy McDyess was before his injuries. Rogers did take the Clippers to the playoffs once, but I really think this draft could have turned out a whole lot better for them.

1995-96: Vancouver Grizzlies (15-67): #3, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, 0 playoff games

The 1996 Draft was the best one since '84, but the poor Grizzlies were forbidden to have the #1 pick since they were an expansion team. So they missed out on Allen Iverson, but they still had Stephon Marbury, Ray Allen and Antoine Walker available. Kobe Bryant was also in this draft, but he assuredly would have demanded a trade to the Lakers (which he did do with the Charlotte Hornets). Steve Nash was taken late in this draft, but he wasn't really on anybody's radar back then. Instead of messing around with any of the aforementioned guards, the Grizzlies played it safe with a power forward. However, Abdur-Rahim was a little too small to be a true power forward and not quite speedy enough to be a true small forward. He did average 20 points a game for Vancouver, then was traded after five seasons to the Atlanta Hawks, where he became an All-Star. And the player traded for him? Pau Gasol. Of course, the Grizzlies didn't truly become competitive until they traded Pau for his little brother, Marc. But that's too far removed to consider this Abdur-Rahim pick much of a success. He failed to take the team to the playoffs, and there were a handful of players taken after him who probably could have done that.

1996-97: Grizzlies (14-68): #4, Antonio Daniels, 0 playoff games

The Grizzlies actually performed worse during Abdur-Rahim's rookie season, and they were awarded with a worse draft pick. Missing out on Tim Duncan, Vancouver decided to get a guard to pair with Abdur-Rahim. However, Daniels only lasted one year before he was replaced by Mike Bibby. Vancouver traded him to San Antonio, where he played fairly decently and even earned a championship ring. The most intriguing player Vancouver brought back in that trade was Felipe Lopez, but he really didn't amount to too much. In hindsight, the Grizzlies probably should have taken a risk on high schooler Tracy McGrady. I mean, what did they have to lose? A 13-win season?

1997-98: Nuggets (11-71): #3, Raef LaFrentz, 0 playoff games

It is quite difficult to win only 11 games in an NBA season. I'd imagine it must have been quite painful, as well, for the Denver fans of the time. What were they rewarded with? One big disappointment. Now, to be fair, LaFrentz was a very intriguing prospect at the time. He seemed to have all the skills you'd want from a center, plus the ability to shoot the 3. But it didn't quite turn out that way. After three and a half years, LaFrentz was packaged in a trade for an old Juwan Howard and an even older Tim Hardaway, leaving many of those sad Denver fans wishing their team had taken a different sharpshooting big man, Dirk Nowitzki.

1998-99: Grizzlies (8-42): #2, Steve Francis (traded to Houston), 0 playoff games

The first lockout was rough on everybody in the NBA (except the Spurs, who won their first title that year). But the lockout was especially tough for the Grizzlies, who didn't have enough games to get to double-digit wins. And despite all their losing, they still couldn't land the top pick, missing out on Elton Brand. But then Vancouver perpetuated their bad luck by drafting Steve Francis, who had no desire to play there. I have a pretty funny basketball card of Francis on draft night, and he looks pissed in his Grizzlies cap. I find it inconceivable that Vancouver was ignorant of Francis' abhorrence for the Canadian city and franchise. Regardless, the Grizzlies were forced to engineer a very complicated three-way trade to send Francis to Houston. They got a lot of stuff in return, but nothing really interesting. So you can chalk this up as another loss for the Grizzlies. If Vancouver really wanted a point guard, they just could've taken Baron Davis. Oh, and as for Francis? Despite all that fuss and whining, he only took the Rockets to the playoffs once.

1999-00: Clippers (15-67): #3, Darius Miles, 0 playoff games

Once again the Clippers became the victims of bad luck. The 2000 Draft was probably the worst in NBA history. Honestly, high schooler Darius Miles was the best the Clippers could have done. Sure, they could have taken Mike Miller, but would have really helped them? In this situation, you might as well take a chance on a high schooler. But, due to the Clippers' bad luck, Miles didn't really pan out. He played two seasons in L.A., averaging nine points per game, before he was traded for Andre Miller. It seemed like Miller was really going to turn the Clippers around, but he said he felt distracted in Los Angeles, and he bolted as soon as he could (spurning the Jazz in the process). The moral of the story is that the Clippers suck (or at least they did for a very long time).

2000-01: Chicago Bulls (15-67): #4, Eddy Curry, 0 playoff games

The Bulls hit rock bottom after Michael Jordan left, but they didn't officially earn the league's worst record until 2000-01. In 2001, they traded for the #2 pick, Tyson Chandler, and used the #4 pick on another center, Eddy Curry. In theory, this seemed like a brilliant plan. Twin towers, one to focus on offense, the other on defense, what could go wrong? Well, everything. Curry and Chandler never could mesh, and both had to be shipped away in a couple of years. Unlike Chandler, Curry never realized his potential, and ended up as one of the biggest busts in the league (figuratively and literally). Interestingly enough, Curry was sent to New York for a slew of players and draft picks, one of which eventually became Joakim Noah. But that's not a big enough consolation prize to redeem this Curry pick.

2001-02: Bulls (21-61): #2, Jay Williams, 0 playoff games
Warrior (21-61): #3, Mike Dunleavy Jr., 0 playoff games

Both these teams just missed out on Yao Ming, but Chicago had the right idea to get a good guard for its twin towers. However, Jay Williams' career was cut short after one season by a motorcycle accident. Perhaps he could have developed into something incredible, but he didn't exactly light it up his rookie year, averaging just nine points and four assists a game. Mike Dunleavy is still in the league, and his dad isn't anymore, so we don't have to call him junior. He spent four and a half seasons in Golden State, averaging 10 points per game, before he was packaged in a trade for Al Harrington and Stephen Jackson. Those two helped guide the 8-seed Warriors past the 1-seed Mavericks (but not past the Jazz). Looking back on the 2002 Draft, there is really only one great player these two teams passed on — high schooler Amar'e Stoudemire.

2002-03: Cleveland Cavaliers (17-65): #1, LeBron James, 71 playoff games
Nuggets (17-65): #3, Carmelo Anthony, 45 playoff games

Now things finally get interesting. After nearly two decades of the lottery successfully punishing tanking teams, everything backfired in 2003, the best draft class since 1984. There were reports of blatant tanking going around this season, foremost among them the Cleveland Cavaliers, desperate to land their hometown hero. And it worked. LeBron James single-handedly made the Cavs a contender, and he even took them to the Finals once (and he could have done it again had he not bailed on the team). Denver, meanwhile, couldn't go wrong with either Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh or Dwyane Wade. They chose Anthony, and he did lead them to the Western Conference finals once, which is about all you can ask from somebody. These two teams enjoyed the fruit of tanking, and they are the biggest reason why teams continue to tank today.

2003-04: Orlando Magic (21-61): #1, Dwight Howard, 57 playoff games

And another success for the tankers! Howard took the Magic all the way to the Finals, before becoming a massive headache for Orlando and the entire NBA. It took a long time, but he was eventually traded to the Lakers, sending the Magic into another cycle of rebuilding and tanking. But that doesn't negate the success he did have in Orlando. Being the best player on a team in the Finals is something to brag about. It is worth noting, however, that these three great tanking success stories — James, Anthony, Howard — did not win a championship for their team.

2004-05: Atlanta Hawks (13-69): #2, Marvin Williams, 42 playoff games

And so ends our streak of tanking success stories. But that's not because the lottery was too restrictive, but rather because the Hawks simply made a really, really stupid mistake. The team needed a point guard, and they had Deron Williams and Chris Paul staring right at them, but they became enamored by the potential of Marvin Williams. Forget the fact that he couldn't even start for his college team — he had potential! Well, that potential never paid off. He did appear in a bunch of playoff games for Atlanta, but he was never their best player, nor did the team ever advance past the second round. Currently, Marvin Williams is on the Utah Jazz, earning the Subway Sub of the Game award for making two 3-pointers. What a find! I'm still not exactly sure why Kevin O'Connor brought him in. Perhaps it was a result of his love affair with Mo Williams.

2005-06: Portland Trail Blazers (21-61): #4, Tyrus Thomas (traded for LaMarcus Aldridge), 18 playoff games

The 2006 Draft was productive for Portland. They traded for Brandon Roy and turned their own pick into LaMarcus Aldridge. It was a really good move, too, since Tyrus Thomas has now fallen into complete obscurity. The Aldridge/Roy combo seemed to have some good legs under it, but unfortunately Roy's legs (and Greg Oden's) couldn't hold up. So injuries derailed this potential tank success, but Aldridge is still going strong, and could probably still make Portland a contender with the right pieces around him. Maybe.

2006-07: Memphis Grizzlies (22-60): #4, Mike Conley Jr., 35 playoff games

The Grizzlies still struggled for a while after moving from Vancouver, but they did score a bit of a success with Mike Conley. No, he's not a cornerstone franchise guy like Kevin Durant, but he was the starting point guard of a Memphis team that made the Western Conference finals last year, and that's a tanking success in my book. With the lottery, you can't always find THE guy to make you a contender, but if you find an important piece of a team that becomes a contender, then you made out alright.

2007-08: Miami Heat (15-67): #2, Michael Beasley, 12 playoff games

The Heat went very quickly from winning a championship to being the NBA's bottom-feeder, all thanks to a Dwyane Wade injury. Missing out on Derrick Rose, Miami overlooked Russell Westbrook and Kevin Love, taking a chance on the troubled, but potentially talented Michael Beasley. Well, he's shown a lot more trouble than talent in his career so far, and was traded away to make room for LeBron James. But now he's back in Miami because no one else will touch him, and the Heat know they're good enough that he won't be able to hurt them. I suppose he's still young enough to redeem his career, but I really think this was a blown pick by the Heat. But what do they care? They just won two more titles.

2008-09: Sacramento Kings (17-65): #4, Tyreke Evans, 0 playoff games

The once brilliant Geoff Petrie very quickly lost his magic once the Chris Webber era ended. The Kings GM suddenly became incapable of making a good move, and drafting Tyreke Evans is one such example. While Sacramento was rather unlucky to miss out on Blake Griffin and James Harden, Ricky Rubio and Stephen Curry were both available. Granted, Evans did put up decent numbers — 20-5-5 his rookie year. But he has regressed a little bit each season, as his lack of a true position or identity has caught up with him. He's now an overpaid bench player in New Orleans, and the Kings are in as big a mess as ever.

2009-10: Nets (12-70): #3, Derrick Favors, 0 playoff games

After threatening to set a record for losses, the Nets acquired a new owner with deep pockets and a deep desire to win immediately. This made New Jersey an ideal dumping ground for the surly Deron Williams, and now the Jazz and Nets are still trying to figure out who got the better end of that trade. The Nets moved to Brooklyn, somehow convinced Williams to stay, and surrounded him with a lot of high-profile, yet aging players. If the Nets can contend for the title this year, then I guess that trade will have been worth it. Meanwhile, I'm still on the fence with Derrick Favors. Why doesn't he score more? The Jazz only have the worst offense in the league, so it's not like anybody's taking shots from him. I suppose he doesn't have anybody to pass him the ball, or a decent coach to guide him, but I'm starting to grow impatient. Being a decent defender doesn't help us too much when we can't score.

2010-11: Timberwolves (17-65): #2, Derrick Williams, 0 playoff games

It's still too early to make any judgment on this pick. So far, it hasn't looked to good, but you never know what could happen in a year or two. The same goes for these next two picks.

2011-12: Charlotte Bobcats (7-59): #2, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, 0 playoff games

2012-13: Magic (20-62): #2, Victor Oladipo

So here are the results of my research. In the past three decades, the worst team in the NBA has only landed the #1 pick four times. And only four times has the worst team drafted a player that took that same team to at least the conference finals (five times if you count Jason Kidd). So, speaking in these terms, teams that bottom out have a roughly 17 percent chance to become a contender through the draft. On the surface, it looks like the lottery is succeeding in its attempts to curtail tanking. And yet teams still tank, and I think that's mainly because of the handful of success stories that turn out really, really well. Teams are willing to deal with the Eddy Currys, Raef LaFrentzes and Michael Beasleys just to get that 17 percent chance of landing a LeBron James. They're willing to suffer through empty arenas, lost season tickets and diminishing fan bases just for that 1/6th of a chance to become relevant again.

And we have to remember that there are all sorts of types of tanking. Even playoff teams occasionally tank to set up a better matchup. For the sake of simplicity, I only focused on the teams with the worst record, but lots of teams successfully tanked by having the second or third worst record. The Sonics/Thunder are a perfect example. It took them about four or five years, but their tanking eventually paid off and they made it to the Finals with guys they drafted. The Chicago Bulls had to tank for a long time before they finally got lucky with Derrick Rose. And as long as teams like them can find success through intentional losing, more teams in the NBA will consider that strategy. Like the Utah Jazz.

So should the Jazz be tanking this year, considering all my research? Yes! Even if they don't get the top pick, they're guaranteed no lower than the fourth, and there will be somebody very good up there. Of course, one year of tanking usually isn't enough. And sometimes tanking can become addictive, even after extreme levels of success — look at the Cavs and the Magic. Tanking is a slippery slope. But, that 17 percent chance of landing a difference maker through 82 games of torture is probably the best chance the Jazz have right now. So I'll continue to cheer against my team, praise Tyrone Corbin for his inept coaching, and cry after every victory.